Policy research working paper ;

Small states, no different from large states in income and growth, should receive the same policy advice large states do. Because of their greater openness, they may be more vulnerable to volatility in terms-of-trade shocks--but their openness pays off in growth.

Ethnic diversity has a more adverse effect on economic policy and growth when a government's institutions are poor. But poor institutions have an even more adverse effect on growth and policy when ethnic diversity is high.

This book provides a comprehensive introduction to modern auction theory and its important new applications. It is written by a leading economic theorist whose suggestions guided the creation of the new spectrum auction designs. Aimed at graduate students and professionals in economics, the book gives the most up-to-date treatments of both traditional theories of 'optimal auctions' and newer theories of multi-unit auctions and package auctions, and shows by example how these theories are used. The analysis explores the limitations of prominent older designs, such as the Vickrey auction design, and evaluates the practical responses to those limitations. It explores the tension between the traditional theory of auctions with a fixed set of bidders, in which the seller seeks to squeeze as much revenue as possible from the fixed set, and the theory of auctions with endogenous entry, in which bidder profits must be respected to encourage participation.

Instead of focusing the debate about the conduct of monetary policy on whether the normal exchange rate should be fixed or flexible, the focus should be on whether the monetary policy regime appropriately constrains discretion in monetary policymaking. Three frameworks deserve serious discussion as possible long-run strategies for monetary policy in Latin America. A hard exchange-rate peg, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting.

In this sample of 49 Latin America, OECD, and transition economies, it is the ineffective and discretionary administration of tax and regulatory regimes--not higher tax rates alone--as well as corruption, that increases the size of the unofficial economy. And countries with a large unofficial economy tend to grow more slowly.

"We analyze the relationship between financial development and inter-industry resource allocation in the short- and long-run. We suggest that in the long-run, economies with high rates of financial development will devote relatively more resources to industries with a 'natural' reliance on outside finance due to a comparative advantage in these industries. By contrast, in the short-run we argue that financial development facilitates the reallocation of resources to industries with good growth opportunities, regardless of their reliance on outside finance. To test these predictions, we use a measure of industry-level 'technological' financial dependence based on the earlier work of Rajan and Zingales (1998), and develop new proxies for shocks to (short run) industry growth opportunities. We find differential effects of these measures on industry growth and composition in countries with different levels of financial development. We obtain results that are consistent with financially developed economies specializing in 'financially dependent' industries in the long-run, and allocating resources to industries with high growth opportunities in the short-run"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

In recent years we have seen a growing number of banking and financial crises in emerging market countries, with great costs to their economies. But we now have a much better understanding of why these crises occur and a better idea how they can be prevented.

"In defiance of its unimpressive track in structural reforms and relatively low foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, Romanian exports have experienced surprisingly strong performance in both EU and non-EU markets since 2000 after a four-year period of flat growth. While the first phase of growth in 1992-95 can be easily explained by redirection of trade toward the EU once the state monopoly over foreign trade was abolished and other policy areas liberalized, the current second phase of export expansion raises questions concerning its drivers and sustainability. Having examined overall foreign trade performance, evolving patterns of specialization, Romania's competitiveness in EU sunrise markets, changes in factor intensities of trade with the EU, and 'intra-product' trade, Kaminski and Ng conclude that Romania's export offer has become diversified, reflecting an impressive progress in industrial restructuring. Restructuring has been facilitated by FDI inflows, even though they appear to have been too small to generate such a big effect. Romanian firms have become increasingly part of international production networks and traditional global value chains. Sustainability of this performance depends on maintaining macroeconomic stabilty and keeping wage increases in line with productivity growth, as well as increasing Romania's ability to attract larger FDI inflows through improvements in business climate and trade facilitation. This paper--a product of the Trade Team, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze regional integration and trade policy"--World Bank web site.

The unprecedented globalization of the production process, dividing up the value chain, has brought the integration of trade and the disintegration of production, with deep implications for the international division of labor. Have Central European economies been able to readjust their production structures to international markets? Three of them: Estonia, Hungary, and Slovakia have done especially well.

Evidence from Uganda confirms that corruption retards development even more than taxation does.

Empirical estimates suggest that fiscal decentralization in government spending is associated with lower government corruption.

The duration of large-scale violent civil conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affect the initiation of conflict. And neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression.

Not surprisingly, extreme negative export price shocks reduce growth. But these adverse effects can be mitigated through offsetting increases in aid. Indeed, targeting aid to countries experiencing negative shocks appears to be even more important for aid effectiveness than targeting aid to countries with good policies.

Experience with monetary targeting suggests that although it successfully controlled inflation in Switzerland and especially Germany, the special conditions that made it work reasonably well in those two countries are unlikely to be satisfied elsewhere. Inflation targeting is more likely to improve economic performance in countries that choose to have an independent domestic monetary policy, but there are subtleties in how inflation targeting is done. Lessons from industrial countries should be useful to central banks designing a framework for monetary policy.

Integration into the production and marketing arrangements of multinational corporations may offer many benefits to transition economies that, after a long period of isolation, have liberalized trade and investment. The fragmentation of production offers a unique opportunity for producers in developing countries to move from servicing small local markets to supplying large firms abroad and, indirectly, their customers all over the world.