Bartłomiej Kamiński

"In defiance of its unimpressive track in structural reforms and relatively low foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, Romanian exports have experienced surprisingly strong performance in both EU and non-EU markets since 2000 after a four-year period of flat growth. While the first phase of growth in 1992-95 can be easily explained by redirection of trade toward the EU once the state monopoly over foreign trade was abolished and other policy areas liberalized, the current second phase of export expansion raises questions concerning its drivers and sustainability. Having examined overall foreign trade performance, evolving patterns of specialization, Romania's competitiveness in EU sunrise markets, changes in factor intensities of trade with the EU, and 'intra-product' trade, Kaminski and Ng conclude that Romania's export offer has become diversified, reflecting an impressive progress in industrial restructuring. Restructuring has been facilitated by FDI inflows, even though they appear to have been too small to generate such a big effect. Romanian firms have become increasingly part of international production networks and traditional global value chains. Sustainability of this performance depends on maintaining macroeconomic stabilty and keeping wage increases in line with productivity growth, as well as increasing Romania's ability to attract larger FDI inflows through improvements in business climate and trade facilitation. This paper--a product of the Trade Team, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze regional integration and trade policy"--World Bank web site.

Integration into the production and marketing arrangements of multinational corporations may offer many benefits to transition economies that, after a long period of isolation, have liberalized trade and investment. The fragmentation of production offers a unique opportunity for producers in developing countries to move from servicing small local markets to supplying large firms abroad and, indirectly, their customers all over the world.

The unprecedented globalization of the production process, dividing up the value chain, has brought the integration of trade and the disintegration of production, with deep implications for the international division of labor. Have Central European economies been able to readjust their production structures to international markets? Three of them: Estonia, Hungary, and Slovakia have done especially well.