Takatoshi Itō

The volume of capital flows between industrial and developing countries has grown dramatically in the past decade and has become a major issue in a world that is increasingly 'globalised'. Here, two experts on this topic have assembled a group of scholars who address different types of capital flows - bank lending, bonds, direct foreign investment - and the implications they hold for economic performance. With its particular focus on the Asian financial crises, this work presents a new model which is concerned with the role of private capital flows.

Choice of an exchange rate regime is a central component in the economic policy of developing countries and a key factor affecting economic growth. Historically, most developing nations have employed strict exchange rate controls and heavy protection of domestic industry - policies now thought to be at odds with sustainable and desirable rates of economic growth. By contrast, many East Asian nations maintained exchange rate regimes designed to achieve an attractive climate for exports and an "outer-oriented" development strategy. The result has been rapid and consistent economic growth over the past few decades. Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries explores the impact of such diverse exchange control regimes in both historical and regional contexts, focusing particular attention on East Asia. This comprehensive, carefully researched volume will surely become a standard reference for scholars and policymakers.

The rise of China and its integration with the rest of the world is probably one of the most important developments in today's global economy, but what impacts has China's rise had on the neighboring economies of East Asia? This book brings together research for those who wish to understand China's rise and policy challenges.

"The paper aims at explaining why the Bank of Japan has not adopted inflation targeting, despite calls for such a policy. Disclosed minutes of the Monetary Policy Meetings of the Bank of Japan, after March 1998, as well as Speeches by its members give clues to changing reasons against inflation targeting. Inflation targeting was not adopted in Japan in the early years (the first wave of interest in1999-2000) because the Board members were not sure about an appropriate price index, and a specific number for an appropriate inflation rate. A Bank of Japan study, completed in October 2000, did not give any clear answers. Inflation targeting was not adopted in later years (2001-2003), despite the inflation-targeting-like commitment strategy adopted in March 2001, because the Board members thought that conventional tools to increase the inflation rate were not available. As such, they thought that announcing a target with a positive inflation rate would damage confidence. In terms of introducing unconventional measures, the Bank of Japan worried about the transmission channels and the damage to its balance sheet. Towards the end of Governor Hayami fs term, the views against inflation targeting turned sharply negative, as news reports suggested that it may be linked to the new Governor fs appointment. Therefore, , why inflation targeting was not adopted, can be explained and understood from a political economy perspective"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

"This paper reviews Japanese monetary policy over the last two decades with an emphasis on the experience of deflation from the mid-1990s. The paper is quite critical of the conduct of monetary policy, particularly from 1998 to 2003. The Bank of Japan's rhetoric was not helpful in fighting deflation, and the interest rate hike in August 2000 amid deflation was a serious mistake. Deflation can be quite costly, and a key element in both preventing and escaping deflation is the management of expectations, using either price level or inflation targeting, because the zero lower bound on interest rates means that the overnight interest rate can no longer be used as the instrument of monetary policy. This paper proposes how to best manage expectations to exit deflation. Price-level targeting overcomes theoretical problems, such as need for a history dependent strategy, associated with inflation targeting. However, because actions speak louder than words, management of expectations also involves non-conventional monetary policies, a combination of which might have to be tried to help the Japanese economy escape its deflationary trap"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

The reform in Asian financial sectors--especially in banking and stock markets--has been remarkable since the currency crisis of 1997-98. Bringing together authors from various East Asian and Pacific nation, this volume examines the institutional factors influencing finacial innovation, the consequences of financial development, widespread consolidation occurring through mergers and acquisitions, and the implementation of policy reform. This volume offers comparative analysis from twelve countries and examines the issue of age in the labor force. Contributors analyze the relationship between incentives to retire and the proportion of older persons in the workforce, the effects that reforming social security would have on the employment rates of older workers, and how extending labor force participation will affect program costs. Dispelling the myth that employing older workers takes jobs away from the young, this timely volume challenges existing assumptions about the relationship between old and young people in the workforce. In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in world trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. This volume undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status, providing detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implication, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. Careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, overturns some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of issues related to China's trade. Almost all industrial countries have recently experienced dramatic decreases in both fertility and mortality rates. This situation has led to aging societies with economies that suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending. East Asia exemplifies these trends, and this volume offers an in-depth look at how long-term demographic transitions have taken shape there and how they have affected the economy in the region. The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in East Asia as well as more specific studies on Japan, Korea, China, and Hong Kong. Offering important insights into the causes and consequences of this transition, this book will benefit students, researchers, and policy makers focused on East Asia as well as anyone concerned with similar trends elsewhere in the world. --Book Jacket.

This volume explores the macroeconomic experience of East Asia in the 1980s and the impact of the region's growth on the rest of the world. The authors examine variables such as current account surpluses and deficits, as well as the ways in which exchange rate fluctuations in today's global economy affect the economies of countries not only in the same region but across the globe. These fourteen papers are organized around four themes: the overall determinants of growth and trading relations in the region; monetary policies in relation to capital controls and capital accounts; the impact of exchange rates on industrial structure; and the potential for greater regional integration. The contributors cover topics such as interactions among exchange rate movements, trade balances, and capital flows in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, and the impact of exchange rates on industrial structure, inventories, and prices of both domestic and exported goods. One set of papers, examining the role of government monetary policy, reveals that when oil prices declined in Taiwan and the government loosened its monetary policy, growth increased without inflation. Another set of papers, focusing on the extent of regional integration in East Asia, finds that most of these nations' currencies are more closely tied to the dollar than to the yen. Macroeconomic Linkage offers a careful study of economic developments in East Asia that will be especially valuable to economists interested in international trade and exchange rates and to regional experts who focus on East Asia.

"This paper establishes several intra-day patterns of the high-frequency exchange rate behavior, using the firm bid-ask quote, transaction of the EBS data set. First, the activity of quote and transactions is high in the beginning hours of the three major currency markets %u2013 Tokyo, London, and New York and low during the Tokyo and London lunch hours and late afternoon in New York. Second, a new observation is obtained in that activity does not increase toward the end of business hours in the three major markets, even during the closing hours of New York on Friday. Third, an average bid-ask spread is narrow (wide), when quote and deal frequencies are high (low, respectively), except the beginning hour of Tokyo (GMT 0), when the bid-ask spread is wide despite high levels of activity"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

This work explores the factors that have contributed to low inflation and deflation in Pacific Rim nations and forecasts some of the potential challenges faced by these nations, as well as possible solutions.

This volume attempts to analyze trade in services in the Asia-Pacific region. Contributors provide overviews of basic issues involved in studying the service sector; investigate the impact of increasing trade in services on the economies of Taiwan, Korea, and Hong Kong; present detailed analyses of specific service sectors (telecommunications, financial services, international tourism, and accounting); and extend our understanding of trade in services beyond the usual concept (measured in balance of payment statistics) to include indirect services and services undertaken abroad by subsidiaries and affiliates.

There is no doubt that after World War II the open multilateral trading system was a key ingredient in the rapid economic development of the entire world. Especially in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, exports increased dramatically both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GNP. In the 1980s, however, preferential trading arrangements (PTAs) began to emerge as significant factors affecting world trade. This volume contains thirteen papers that analyze the tensions between multilateral trading systems and preferential trade arrangements and the impact of these tensions on East Asia.

Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.