Robert William Fogel

"At the close of World War II, there were wide-ranging debates about the future of economic developments. Historical experience has since shown that these forecasts were uniformly too pessimistic. Expectations for the American economy focused on the likelihood of secular stagnation; this topic continued to be debated throughout the post-World War II expansion. Concerns raised during the late 1960s and early 1970s about rapid population growth smothering the potential for economic growth in less developed countries were contradicted when during the mid- and late-1970s, fertility rates in third world countries began to decline very rapidly. Predictions that food production would not be able to keep up with population growth have also been proven wrong, as between 1961 and 2000 calories per capita worldwide have increased by 24 percent, despite the doubling of the global population. The extraordinary economic growth in Southeast and East Asia had also been unforeseen by economists"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

"To American and European economists in 1945, the countries of Asia were unpromising candidates for high economic growth. In 1950 even the most prosperous of these countries had a per capita income less than 25 percent of that of the United States. Between the mid-1960s and the end of the twentieth century, however, many of the countries of South and Southeast Asia experienced vigorous economic growth, some with growth rates far exceeding the previous growth rates of the industrialized countries. Forecasts that the region%u2019s population growth would outstrip its capacity to feed itself, and that its economic growth would falter, proved to be incorrect. Growth rates will probably continue at high levels in Southeast Asia for at least another generation. This forecast is based on 4 factors: the trend toward rising labor force participation rates, the shift from low to high productivity sectors, continued increases in the educational level of the labor force, and other improvements in the quality of output that are at present not accurately measured in national income accounts"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

"Fogel contends that the ethical and political crises that currently beset the nation are the most recent manifestations of the recurring effort to bring human institutions into balance with the massive technological changes that drastically transform the economy and periodically destabilize the prevailing culture. Today, as in the past, that process of adjustment involves the rise of powerful religious/political movements which historians refer to as "Great Awakenings.""--BOOK JACKET.

Compares statistical and traditional approaches to the study of history and discusses categories of evidence, standards of proof, and the proper subject matter for history.

This dataset was prepared by Robert W. Fogel (The University of Chicago and the University of Rochester) and Stanley L. Engermann (The University of Rochester) and used for the analyses presented in Time on the Cross: The Economics of American Negro Slavery, Volume 1 and Time on the Cross: Evidence and Methods--A Supplement Volume 2. Information on the deaths of approximately 10,500 persons in seven states in the southern United States in 1850 are recorded in this dataset. The data were obtained from the manuscript mortality schedules of the 1850 United States Census. Deaths by age, sex, and place of birth for the free and slave populations are included in the file, as are variables documenting the date and cause of death as well as the occupation of the deceased individuals.

"Explaining Long-Term Trends in Health and Longevity is a collection of essays by Nobel laureate Robert W. Fogel on the theory and measurement of ageing and health-related variables. Dr Fogel analyzes historic data on height, health, nutrition and life expectation to provide a clearer understanding of the past, illustrate the costs and benefits of using such measures and note the difficulties of drawing conclusions from data intended for different purposes. Dr Fogel explains how the basic findings of the anthropomorphic approach to historical analysis have helped reinterpret the nature of economic growth. Rising life expectancies and lower disease rates in countries experiencing economic growth highlight the importance of improving nutrition and agricultural productivity"-- "This book collects several of Robert W. Fogel's papers on the nuances of anthropometric data. While often difficult to work with, these data have provided economists, demographers, economic historians, and epidemiologists the opportunities to make major contributions to the understanding of long-term changes in health, healthcare costs, and the physiology of aging"--

Resource added for the Economics "10-809-195" courses.

Contains a portion of the historical data collected by the project "Early indicators of the later work levels, disease, and death." The goal is to construct datasets suitable for longitudinal studies of factors affecting the aging process.

This dataset was prepared by Robert W. Fogel (the University of Chicago and the University of Rochester) and Stanley L. Engerman (the University of Rochester) and used for the analyses presented in Time on the Cross: The Economics of American Negro Slavery, Volume 1 and Time on the Cross: Evidence and Methods--A Supplement, Volume 2. Data pertaining to the hiring transactions for over 20,000 slaves in eight states of the southern United States from 1775 to 1865 are contained in this dataset. The majority of the data were obtained from a nonrandom sample of probate records for the southern states, on deposit in the Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter Day Saints Genealogical Society Library, Salt Lake City, Utah. Included are variables documenting the date and location of the hire, the period and rate of hire, as well as the hired slaves' ages, sexes, defects, and occupational skills. The Slave Hires dataset is similar in scope to the Slave Sales and Appraisals, 1775-1865, dataset (ICPSR 7421), also prepared by Robert W. Fogel and Stanley L. Engerman.

"Offering new research on strategic factors in the development of the nineteenth century American economy--labor, capital, and political structure--the contributors to this volume employ a methodology innovated by Robert W. Fogel, one of the leading pioneers of the "new economic history." Fogel's work is distinguished by the application of economic theory and large-scale quantitative evidence to long-standing historical questions." "These sixteen essays reveal, by example, the continuing vitality of Fogel's approach. The authors use an astonishing variety of data, including genealogies, the U.S. federal population census manuscripts, manumission and probate records, firm accounts, farmers' account books, and slave narratives, to address collectively market integration and its impact on the lives of Americans. Students of labor history will find essays that reveal which laborers gained from early industrialization, how labor markets of the period responded to macroeconomic disturbances, and what role was played by contract labor in northern agriculture. For those with interests in monetary and financial history, there are essays that examine antebellum financial market integration, the effects of disturbances in financial markets on the real economy, and the accumulation and distribution of wealth. Demographers will benefit from five innovative studies: one setting forth new period and cohort mortality estimates, another on nutrition and health among free African-Americans, a revealing portrait of the slave family, and, lastly, two explaining the fertility decline. Finally, three essays are devoted to political economy, one to railroad financing in Canada and two to the economic consequences of urban politics in the United States.". "The volume also includes two appreciations of Fogel written by Stanley L. Engerman and Donald N. McCloskey, and a bibliography of Fogel's writings. Economic historians will find the volume indispensable because of its wealth of new findings and conjectures about the nature of economic development in the nineteenth century; it also provides a basis for appreciating the contribution of the new economic history and Fogel's central role within it."--BOOK JACKET.

Nobel laureate Robert Fogel's compelling new study examines health, nutrition and technology over the last three centuries and beyond. Throughout most of human history, chronic malnutrition has been the norm. During the past three centuries, however, a synergy between improvements in productive technology and in human physiology has enabled humans to more than double their average longevity and to increase their average body size by over 50 per cent. Larger, healthier humans have contributed to the acceleration of economic growth and technological change, resulting in reduced economic inequality, declining hours of work and a corresponding increase in leisure time. Increased longevity has also brought increased demand for health care. Professor Fogel argues that health care should be viewed as the growth industry of the twenty-first century and systems of financing it should be reformed. His book will be essential reading for all those interested in economics, demography, history and health care policy.