Robert E. Lucas

"In the past decade macroeconomic theory has undergone a remarkable transformation. At the forefront has been the "rational expectations revolution," and this school's most brilliant exponent is Robert E. Lucas. In this elegant and relatively non-technical survey, Lucas reviews the nature and consequences of recent developments in monetary and business cycle theory. He discusses the usefulness of alternative models in determining the effects of economic policy on consumption streams and individual welfare. Drawing on a specific model of aggregate activity which represents the current frontier in business cycle research, he then examines the contemporary theory of unemployment. Finally and most controversially, he explores the role of monetary disturbances."--Back Cover

A model is proposed to describe the evolution of real GDPs in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies. The five parameters of the model are calibrated using the Sachs-Warner definition of openness and time-series and cross-section data on incomes and other variables from the 19th and 20th centuries. The model predicts convergence of income levels and growth rates and has strong but reasonable implications for transition dynamics.

"The most exciting field in economics during the past fifteen years has been that of economic growth. Economists are now beginning to find plausible answers to such profound questions as why some countries experienced rapid growth in the postwar era, while others stagnated; and why per capita income, which had been constant for most of human history, suddenly took off in the eighteenth century, the phenomenon known as the Industrial Revolution. In this book, Robert Lucas brings together several of his seminal papers on the subject, together with the Kuznets Lectures that he gave at Yale University, to present a coherent view of economic growth."--BOOK JACKET.