Raymond S. Nickerson

"The ability to think probabilistically is important for many reasons. Lack of it makes one prone to a variety or irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naivete, precludes intelligent assessment of risks, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilities the misinterpretation of statistical information, precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims, and generally undercuts rational thinking in numerous ways. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way." "In this book, Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty and people as intuitive probabilists." "Cognition and Chance in intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business economies, decision theory, and social dilemmas."--BOOK JACKET.

"Aspects of Rationality: Reflections on What it Means to be Rational and Whether We Are examines and explores the many unanswered questions about human rationality by asking: What does it mean to be rational, and to reason well effectively? How does rationality relate to our knowledge and beliefs, our values, our judgments, and our decisions? Are we rational as individuals? As a species? In this book, Dr. Raymond S. Nickerson discusses much of the experimental research that has been done on reasoning as it relates to the question of human rationality, and comes to conclusions not typically offered by current volumes discussing this subject."--Jacket.

Drawing from the study of human reasoning, Argumentation describes different types of arguments and explains how they influence beliefs and behaviour. Raymond Nickerson identifies many of the fallacies, biases, and other flaws often found in arguments as well as 'stratagems' (schemes, illogical and alogical tactics) that people regularly use to persuade others. Much attention is given to the evaluation of arguments. Readers will learn a new schematic for evaluating arguments based on cognitive science. As a source for understanding and evaluating arguments in decision-making, it is ideal for courses on cognition, reasoning, and psychology.