David R. Cox

The analysis, prediction and interpolation of economic and other time series has a long history and many applications. Major new developments are taking place, driven partly by the need to analyze financial data. The five papers in this book describe those new developments from various viewpoints and are intended to be an introduction accessible to readers from a range of backgrounds. The book arises out of the second Seminaire European de Statistique (SEMSTAT) held in Oxford in December 1994. This brought together young statisticians from across Europe, and a series of introductory lectures were given on topics at the forefront of current research activity. The lectures form the basis for the five papers contained in the book. The papers by Shephard and Johansen deal respectively with time series models for volatility, i.e. variance heterogeneity, and with cointegration. Clements and Hendry analyze the nature of prediction errors. A complementary review paper by Laird gives a biometrical view of the analysis of short time series. Finally Astrup and Nielsen give a mathematical introduction to the study of option pricing. Whilst the book draws its primary motivation from financial series and from multivariate econometric modelling, the applications are potentially much broader.

149 p. : 30 cm

In this definitive book, D. R. Cox gives a comprehensive and balanced appraisal of statistical inference. He develops the key concepts, describing and comparing the main ideas and controversies over foundational issues that have been keenly argued for more than two-hundred years. Continuing a sixty-year career of major contributions to statistical thought, no one is better placed to give this much-needed account of the field. An appendix gives a more personal assessment of the merits of different ideas. The content ranges from the traditional to the contemporary. While specific applications are not treated, the book is strongly motivated by applications across the sciences and associated technologies. The mathematics is kept as elementary as feasible, though previous knowledge of statistics is assumed. The book will be valued by every user or student of statistics who is serious about understanding the uncertainty inherent in conclusions from statistical analyses.

"Applied statistics is more than data analysis, but it is easy to lose sight of the big picture. David Cox and Christl Donnelly distil decades of scientific experience into usable principles for the successful application of statistics, showing how good statistical strategy shapes every stage of an investigation. As you advance from research or policy question, to study design, through modelling and interpretation, and finally to meaningful conclusions, this book will be a valuable guide. Over a hundred illustrations from a wide variety of real applications make the conceptual points concrete, illuminating your path and deepening your understanding. This book is essential reading for anyone who makes extensive use of statistical methods in their work"-- "In ideal sequence is defined specifying the progression of an investigation from the conception of one or more research questions to the drawing of conclusions. The role of statistical analysis is outlined for design, measurement, analysis and interpretation. 1.1 Preliminaries This short chapter gives a general account of the issues to be discussed in the book, namely those connected with situations in which appreciable unexplained and haphazard variation is present. We outline in idealized form the main phases of this kind of scientific investigation and the stages of statistical analysis likely to be needed. It would be arid to attempt a precise definition of statistical analysis as contrasted with other forms of analysis"--

"The case-control approach is a powerful method for investigating factors that may explain a particular event. It is extensively used in epidemiology to study disease incidence, one of the best-known examples being the investigation by Bradford Hill and Doll of the possible connection between cigarette smoking and lung cancer. More recently, case-control studies have been increasingly used in other fields, including sociology and econometrics. With a particular focus on statistical analysis, this book is ideal for applied and theoretical statisticians wanting an up-to-date introduction to the field. It covers the fundamentals of case-control study design and analysis as well as more recent developments, including two-stage studies, case-only studies and methods for case-control sampling in time. The latter have important applications in large prospective cohorts that require case-control sampling designs to make efficient use of resources. More theoretical background is provided in an appendix for those new to the field"--Provided by publisher.