UNITED STATES AUTHOR
Nate Silver
Also known as: Nathaniel Read Silver
Nathaniel Read Silver is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. --Wikipedia Photo Attribution: Gary He, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons
When William Jefferson Clinton, as he now called himself, retiring momentarily the informal "Bill," took the oath of office on a brilliant, cold January 20, hopes and expectations of what he could achieve were high.
— from On the Edge
Most acclaimed
On the Edge
Elizabeth Drew's On the Edge is the first inside, full-spectrum report on the Clinton Presidency. Since he came to office, Clinton has been hard to read - ambitious and uncertain, looking toward the future and hounded by the past. From the first days of the administration, Drew has been speaking with and learning from the President's top advisers, key Cabinet officers, and well-placed members of Congress, as she has watched - up close, behind the scenes - as plans are hammered out, policies set, and problems confronted. Drew tells the remarkable story of this turbulent term - and deciphers what it means. Clinton's far-reaching domestic proposals and considerable achievements are recounted, as well as the distracting and corrosive personal struggles, especially Whitewater. Drew portrays his legislative gambles - from health care to NAFTA - and his costly inattention to foreign policy - the confused policymaking on Somalia, Bosnia, Haiti. She reveals the struggles within the President's foreign policy team. She traces how controversies over such a wide range of issues and events - gays in the military, the mishandling of Zoe Baird's and Lani Guinier's nominations, the $200 haircut, the travel office, and the death of Vincent Foster - have undermined confidence in Clinton's Presidency and fanned the flames of "the character issue." She shows sides of Clinton never seen before and explores the critical and little-understood role of Hillary Rodham Clinton - both as a power and as a personality - and measures the truly unprecedented influence of Vice President Al Gore.
The Best American Infographics 2014
The rise of infographics across virtually all print and electronic media reveals patterns in our lives and worlds in fresh and surprising ways. As we find ourselves in the era of big data, where information moves faster than ever, infographics provide us with quick, often influential bursts of art and knowledge--to digest, tweet, share, go viral. Best American Infographics 2014 captures the finest examples, from the past year, of this mesmerizing new way of seeing and understanding our world. Guest introducer Nate Silver brings his unparalleled expertise and lively analysis to this visually compelling new volume.
The Signal and the Noise
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.